It’s Time to switch to Quality IT stocks:

The global economy has been going through a phase of slowdown. The financial crises have only added to this slowdown. Reigning high crude prices, escalating costs and fears of recession have cast a cloud of uncertainty over the IT spends of clients. Given such a backdrop majority of the brokerage houses are advising investors to shift their portfolio to large cap stocks due to the following reasons:

• Clients would go in for vendor consolidation. This would benefit large companies (the big companies are among the top three to four vendors for most of their top clients).
• IT budgets are expected to remain flat as compared to last year, but as expected offshoring to increase, which would benefit the larger players the most.
• The bigger companies have the scale and the management bandwidth to withstand a period of flattish growth in revenues. Also, they have greater flexibility in managing client’s accounts.
• Larger companies with a wider base of customers will be relatively less impacted by lack of spending by a particular client unlike mid or small tier companies who are more dependent on single clients.

Thus investors start locking your money into Infy, Wipro, TCS, HCL etc.

Recent insider news of some exciting 150 companies.

This is again a copy-paste work. Not my research for sure. But very useful information.

1)Shrenuj & Co:Targets a revenue of US$1 billion by the year 2012.

2)Simplex Infrastructures:The current order book is at Rs 10012 crore.

3)Indian Bank:Hikes Dividend from 30% to 40%.

4)Tata Steel:Return on Invested capital to be increased to 30% by 2012.

5)Setco Automotive:Capex and Investment Plan of Rs 62 crore.

6)Patel Engineering:Expects a growth of 20% to 30% for FY09.

7)LIC Housing Finance:Gross NPA ratio has declined from 2.58% to 1.7% while net NPA ratio declined from 1.26% to 0.64%.

8)Jagran Prakashan:OPM to remain stable or improve from FY08 levels

9)Bombay rayon:Maharashtra expansion project as per schedule.

10)Himatsingka Seide:Expects Hassan facility to breakeven in FY’09.

11)Gujarat State Petronet:The company expects to increase volume of gas by more than 50% to 25 mmscmd by FY’09.

12)Associated Alcohols & Breweries:Plans a capex of Rs 50.9 crore.

13)Thomas Cook India:To raise about Rs 200-300 crore within a year.

14)PSL:Standalone top line to grow over 40% in FY09.

15)Sagar Cement:Expects 1.5 million metric tonnes cement sales for FY 09.

16)ONGC India:Plans a capex of Rs 19,338 crore in FY’09.

17)Piramal Healthcare:Top-line for the current year is expected to grow at 16%.

18)FCS Software Solutions:FY09 EPS expected at Rs 30.60.

19)Bharat Bijlee:Outlook for the company, except for the first quarter, is positive.

20)Tulip Telecom:Expects revenue from data connectivity, managed services and value added services to increase.

21)Consolidated Construction Company:Just 10% of order backlog is at fixed rates.

22)Union Bank of India:Expects deposits and advances to grow by 23% and 22% in FY09.

23)Idea Cellular:To acquire 40.8% stake in Spice Communications.

24)Cairn India:Capex for FY’09 is $1.8 billion.

25)Jet Airways:ASKM growth expected at 59-60% for FY09.

26)Kansai Nerolac:Planning capex of Rs 100 crore in FY09.

27)IndusInd Bank:Expects to grow its balance sheet 40%-45%.

28)TV Today Network:Rate hike of 13-15% for FY09.

29)Essar Shipping Ports & Logistics:Has committed contracts worth $4.5 billion over next 5 years.

30)Ratnamani Metals and Tubes:The order book stands at Rs 650 crore, executable over the next 6-8 months.

31)Syngenta India:Capital expenditure plan for the current year is around Rs 180 crore.

32)Hindalco Industries:Will come out with right issue of Rs 5000 crore.

33)Sujana Towers:Targets revenue of Rs 1150-1250 crore with EBIDTA margin of 15-16% in FY09.

34)Tata Communications:Forays in to China market with 50% equity acquisition in CEC.

35)Rajesh Exports:Has an order book of Rs 1,685 crore.

36)Dish TV India:Targets 2 million subscriber additions in FY09.

37)HEG:Targets to produce 58000 tonnes of Graphite Electrodes during the FY’09.

38)Wire & Wireless (India):Capex of over Rs 1000 crore in next 2 years.

39)JSW Steel:By the year 2010 the company shall be investing Rs 14000 crores on various projects.

40)KLG Systel:Expects FY09 revenues at Rs 540 crore with PAT of Rs 74 crore.

41)Godawari Power and Ispat:Targeting around 25% rise in production volumes for the FY’09.

42)Vikas WSP:Capital expenditure plan of Rs 900 crore for the next three years.

43)KPIT Cummins Infosystems:Revenue shortfall and variable pay impact margins.

44)Omnitech InfoSolutions:60-70% growth in FY09 including acquisitions.

45)NIIT:OPM for individual learning to improve by 200-300bps.

46)Hindustan Construction Company:The company has Rs 10000 crore order book.

47)3i Infotech:"Transaction services business could contribute as much as 30% of the revenues in the next few years.

48)Wanbury:'In FY ’09 it expects net sales of Rs 520 and a net profit margin of 12-13%.

49)Asian electronics:The company expects to put its bad times behind very soon and hopes to regain its lost glory in the coming few months.

50)Avon weighing systems:-The company expects to acheive 100crs turnover by 2009.

51)Bihar Tubes:Expects to be Rs 1000 crore over the period of next 2 ½ years.

52)PTC India:Focusing on long-term market for traded power.

53)Jindal Saw:Order book in excess of a billion dollar.

54)Ashok Leyland:Price hike in April ’08 not enough to cushion escalating costs.

55)R Systems International:OPM margins of 12-13% to be maintained.

56)Astral Poly technik:Expects tremendous growth in business and raises the planned expansion capacity from the initial target of 18000 tons to 25968 tons by Sep.’08.

57)Cerebra Integrated Technologies:New ventures to give multifold growth.

58)Development Credit Bank (DCB):Focus on SME business and CASA deposits.

59)Dena Bank:Plans to open at least 26 new branches and 12 retail asset centres in FY 09.

60)Entertainment Network (India):The share of Radio in the advertising industry grew to 4% from 3% last year and the company expects it to increase to 7-8% in the next 3-4 years.

61)Usha Martin:Targets gross sales turnover of Rs 5000 crore on a consolidated basis for FY’09.

62)Garware Offshore:Expects turnover of Rs 200 crore in FY’10.

63)Varun Shipping:Capex of US$ 400 million to complete by December 2008.

64)R Systems International:OPM margins of 12-13% to be maintained.

65)Bafna Pharmaceuticals:Coming up with IPO of Rs 25.60 crore.

66)Omnitech InfoSolutions:FY09 revenue growth expected at 35-40% excluding acquisitions.

67)Almondz Global Securities:Expects equity broking operations to turn profitable this year.

68)Chennai Petroleum Corporation:Capex for FY ’09 will be Rs 800 crore.

69)DCM Shriram Consolidated:Capital expenditure of Rs 200 crore for the current year.

70)Tech Mahindra:US$ 2 billion revenues locked for next 4-5 years.

71)Blue Star:Order book at the end of FY08 stands at Rs 1135 crore.

72)Mercator Lines:Revenue from coal mines to accrue from July ‘08.

73)Voltas:Order book stands at Rs 4631 crore with average execution period of 2 years.

74)Housing Development & Infrastructure:Rise in carpet area of SR tenements to 269 sq ft will not impact negatively.

75)Tata Teleservices Maharashtra:Plans capex of Rs 850 crore mostly for active infrastructure side.

76)Lakshmi Machine Works:Order book position declines 17% to Rs 4400 crore.

77)J K Cement:Company to set-up cement unit in Fujairah (UAE) for a cost of Rs 1,400 crore.

78)Max India:Expects 55-60% growth in the insurance business in FY08-09.

79)Opto Circuits:Invasive Healthcare segment expected to grow at 80-90% in FY09.

90)Bharat Heavy Electricals:The company targets 25% growth in sales in FY’09.

81)Dalmia Cement:Co-generation unit to contribute significantly to the top-line during the current year.

82)Omaxe:Expects to deliver 15-17 million sq ft in FY-09.

83)Deepak Fertilizers & Petrochemicals Corporation:KG Basin gas will add around Rs 200 crore to topline and Rs 50 crore to PBT.

84)Micro Technologies:Plans to increase Micro Shoppe network to around 300 shops by March 2009.

85)HOV Services:Offer to sell off of 95% of existing business at Rs 170 per share.

86)Modern India:Plans to dilute equity, to part finance Rs 170 crore of investments.

87)Mawana Sugar:Expects 5-6% decline in area under cane cultivation in next season.

88)Provogue (India):Total cost of Prozone’s 12 projects will be around Rs 4800 crore.

89)Kesoram Industries:Rs 840 crore capital expenditure plan to increase tyre capacity.

90)SEAMEC:Will acquire one more vessel by year-end.

91)Indoco Remedies:Expects OPM of around 22% in FY-09.

92)Moser Baer (India):PV installed capacity to be over 240MW by end FY09.

93)Mphasis bfl: Application services business to be on track by end Q3FY09.

94)ITD Cem: Estimated value of work in hand currently is Rs 2312.91 crore.

95) Advanta India: International business is expected to grow 20-25%.

96)Dabur India: Expects a sales growth of 15% and margin of 17% for FY 09.

97) Binani Cement:Capacity to increase to 12-13 million metric tones by FY 2010.

98)Sintex Industries Targeting a margin of 14-15% in the next 2-3 years for its foreign subsidiaries.

99)GTL Infrastructure:Demand from operators having tower companies slows down.

100) Elgi Equipments Expects a sales growth of 20-25% for FY ’09.

101)reliance industries:Having grown global gross reserve and contingent resource base to 5 billion barrels of oil equivalent, it has set an ambitious resource accretion target of 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

102)SKF India:Growth in revenue is expected to be around 12-14% for CY’08.

103)State Bank of India:Bank will open 2000 new branches in FY09.

104)Lotus Eye Care Hospital:Eyes capex of Rs 55 crore.

105)Page Industries:The company’s average capacity has increased to 56.5 million pieces per annum as against 30 million pieces in the corresponding previous year.

106)Shasun Chemicals and Drugs:Expects 30% increase in bottomline.

107)Orbit Corporation:Adds 7 new projects in FY 2008.

108)Reliance petroleum:Long term outlook positive for refining margins.

109)PVR:Expects 200-300 bps improvement in OPM going forward.

110)Visa Steel:Would sell 250000 of coke in FY’09.The 0.5 Mtpa integrated special and stainless steel plant will be commissioned by end of FY 2008.

111)Colgate Palmolive:Overall volume to grow by 9%.

112)Punj Lloyd:The company is hopeful for settlement of the claim from one of its clients, which otherwise, according to auditors, will result in loss of Rs 305 crore.

113)Sanghvi Movers:EBITDA margin of 73-74% will be maintained.

114)GIPCL:First unit of Surat TPS II will be operational by Dec ’08.

115)Essar Oil:Increasing capacity to 50 MTPA from 10.5 MTPA.

116)Sun Pharmaceuticals:Expects US business to grow at 25% in FY-09.

117)Larsen & Toubro:The company expects the momentum in order book growth to continue.Targets a growth of around 30-35% for FY’09

118)Shriram Transport Finance Company:Target to reach AUM to Rs 300 billion by FY’10.

119)India Glycols:Capex of Rs 350 crore in FY ‘09.

120)Indian Oil Corporation:Implementing projects of over Rs 50,000 crore.

121)Steelcast:The company has set up a Vision 2010 statement where it has set up a target of net sales of Rs 175 crore.

122)JCT:On implementation of capex, the company is targeting to achieve turnover of over Rs 1000 crore with substantial improvement in profitability.

123)Supreme Industries:The company expects to double its turnover in four years.

124)Eastern Silk Industries:The goal is to increase average realization from current US S $ 10 to US $ 18 per metre by 2009.

125)VST Industries:Pins hopes on shift from Bidis to Cigarettes.

126)Wockhardt:Strategic acquisitions to drive future growth.

127)McLeod Russel India:Tea prices expected to firm up.

128)RS Software:Targeting revenues of Rs 900 crore by FY2011.

129)Four Soft:Targeting fully diluted EPS of Rs 7.50 for FY08.

130)Rajshree Sugars and Chemicals:Planning for setting up a new sugar factory.

131)HEG:The order book for FY08 is healthy, with 40-50% of sales already booked at prices, which are 18-20% higher than last year.

132)Usha Martin:Plans to expand capacity to 1 million tpa by FY 2010.

133)Radico Khaitan:Confident of achieving 20% topline and bottomline growth for the year through organic growth.

134)Elecon Engineering:For FY08, the company expects sales of over Rs 1000 crores.

135)Subros:Targets to sell about 1 million units of A/C kits every year by 2012.

136)Asian Paints:Material prices are now stabilizing and further increases are not likely except in a few cases.

137)Sasken Communication:Expects Services business growth at 30-35% excluding Botnia.

138)Plastiblends India:Uttranchal Plant expansion will provide access to North India market apart from various tax incentives.

139)Thermax:Expects all business group to power revenue growth of over 30%.

140)Uni Abex Alloys:The company has set internal target of Rs 100 crore of revenues by Mar’10.

141)Gulshan Sugars and Chemicals:Intends to capitalize on demand from paper Industry.

142)Dhampur Sugar Mills:The company is looking for opportunities in Jamaica.

143)Navneet Publications:The growth in near future will be driven by some of the new initiatives such as introduction of non-paper stationery products, foray into Urdu publication and e-learning business.

144)Sanwaria Agro Oils Ltd:The company plans to go for backward integration, and is looking to undertake contract farming abroad.

145)Banco Products India Ltd:The company is expected to grow at 25-30% in the coming years and exploring opportunities to tap global OEMs.

146)Evinix Accessories Limited:plans to open 70 CUT stores and are looking at raising around Rs750mn by the end of March ‘09.

147)Bafna Pharmaceuticals Ltd:The company is intending to enter into the regulated market and towards that purpose has set up a new unit near Chennai, which would be a MHRA approved unit.

148)Arshiya International Ltd:The company has over 400 clients and top 5 contribute to 15% of the profits.

149)Tricom India Ltd:Tricom is in the process of finalising two acquisitions. One of them is a US company.

150)Magnum Ventures Ltd:By Jan 2009, the company expects the Sahibabad four-star hotel to get ready.

Some LINES should never be crossed on Bourses!!!

I firmly believe that none of the technical works in a Bear mark. Still I feel some Lines should never be crosses on SENSEX. And the number is 12,800. If this line is crossed there is a consensus views in the market that it will tumble to 10,800. But as we all know there are reasons behind every advances and decline. I believe the only reason why 12,800 will be crossed has nothing to do with the global factors. The Bears (If come soaring) will be ignited by domestic factors only. If on 22^nd July there is a political turmoil these line will be surely crosses and we will witness a Bloodbath.

But in case, the “Congress Jugad” works, the markets would not be out of woods at least for a few months. We will surely see the 123 Agreement getting passed. And consequently a lot of Capital Goods and Power sector industry will soar to a new high. Market did a bounce back once Left was out of the government. We all understand that a lot of Reforms like Banking sector, Pension sector, Labor laws are likely to start. A lot of FDI caps are on the way.

Still I believe this is a very crucial time for SENSEX and some LINES shouldn’t be crossed at any point of time.

Jaane Tu …. Ya Jaane Naa …..

I’m not here to discuss the movie off course. I’m just telling the various Strategies of Picking Stocks for people who are Tax payers like me (not that important) …..

Strategy 1: Buy only blue chip stocks at every dip. And keep holding the stock for a decade or half. Majority of old aged people and time strapped investors go for this. This is not a bad strategy but believe me this strategy will never give more than 15% per annum return. Not bad still better than a lot of debt related fund.

Strategy 2: Buy momentum stocks at every dip and sell at every high. The best way to go about. This is how majority of stock traders make money in market. Bourses are all about Money rotation. But this raises the basic issue “Whether a retail investor can Time the market.”

Strategy 3: Follow the recommendations of Stock analyst and advisors and make money. The worst strategy!!! Try this and believe me you will end up booking huge losses. The strategy goes worst if you are a Margin Trader. Usually, you will buy the stocks at higher price and sell it at lower price.

Strategy 4: Park 25% of your money in blue chip and 50 % money in MIDCAP. Keep the rest 25% of the money in CASH. Remember cash is the king. And if you are cash rich irrespective of the situation of market you have the Buying and most importantly Averaging power.

Strategy 5: Go for a SIP of stocks. Just follow the Systematic Investment Plan of Mutual Fund. Select one or two stock and fix a particular date of month. Keep buying a fixed quantity of that stock on that specified date. Even layman like me will not loose money. I BET ON THIS…..

Some Funny Abbreviation's

The latest abbreviated forms:-

1)PE - Plunge Endless

2)EBITDA- Exit Before It Tumbles Down Again

3)QIB - Quixotic Indian Blunder

4)HNI - Has No Idea

5)FII - Furious Impoverished Investors

6)PMS - Premeditated Scam

7)SIP - Suicide by Investing Patiently

8)Fund Manager - Last year’s ace stock picker now locked up in an asylum

9)Investor - Someone who is broke

10)Broker - Worse off than an investor

11)Correction - The next day after you bought shares

12)Momentum buying - The fine art of buying high and selling low

13)Value buying - The art of buying low and selling even lower

Why I like bear market!!!

This is again my personal view. You guys must be having a different take on this issue. So guys share you views as comment to this post.

The reasons why I still like bear market even though I m sitting on huge losses is as follows:

1. For young and new investors like us it gives a great buying opportunity.
2. I remember before Jan ’08, I just use to see the share price of Blue Chip and thought these are not my cup of tea. Suddenly five months down the line, I am buying Blue Chip like Reliance and L&T.
3. The bear market takes the poison of “overvaluation” out of the stocks.
4. During the BULL run, you find a lot of analysts and advisor deluging there recommendation. Never in a bear run have I got any recommendation. So you have a lot of time to apply your brain and heart to select a stock.
5. The bear market makes you understand the value and meaning of PROFIT BOOKING. Lot of long turn investor, say an investor who invested three year back, must have got nothing for his patience. If he had thought of rotating his money after every completed year. He would have made a lot. Rotating and booking PROFIT is an art which an investor need to learn. Putting the money and forgetting it is not the best of strategies.
6. A bear market exemplifies the saying “CASH is KING”.
7. If one knows how to deal with derivatives, he can make a lot of money by trading PUT strategy.
8. The best is part is that you know….. the Morning is near….. and Bulls will return sooner…. So guys take this as an opportunity and believe me LOSS is not loss until its realized. The same holds true for PROFIT…..

Rising FD rates to cheer depositors

There is some good news for retired persons and those dependent on interest income as banks have started increasing their fixed deposit rates following the decision of the RBI to hike the short term lending rate by 0.25%.
Oriental Bank of Commerce has revised its fixed deposit rates for various maturities and raised the rates for its special deposit scheme Asha Kiran (FDs for 400 days) to 9.75% for senior citizens.
This is probably the highest interest rate being offered by the city based public sector lender on 13-month deposit.
Though the senior citizens would get a rate of 9.75%, others will receive 9.25% for 400-day fixed deposit from OBC.
Even the new generation private sector lender Yes Bank increased the deposit rates by 0.5% across all maturities.
After the recent revision of interest rates by Yes Bank, senior citizens would get a maximum of 10% on fixed deposits with a maturity of one year to 18 months. The others would receive a return of 9.5%.
Country's largest public sector lender, State Bank of India, also revised fixed deposit rates upward by up to 0.5% for selected tenures effective June 1.
SBI increased fixed deposits rate for 5-10 years by 0.5% to 9% while 3-5 years tenure was hiked by 0.35%. Senior citizens will get 0.5% more.
Another Mumbai-based lender Bank of India also increased deposit rates up to 0.5% for various maturities.
For deposits having a maturity of one year to less than two years, the revised rate stands at 9.15%, against the earlier rate of 8.50%, while for deposits ranging from two to three years, the new rate is 9.25% as against earlier rate of 8.75%.
Similarly, fixed deposits of Bank of India having a maturity of three to five years will earn 9.50% interest, against the earlier 8.75%.
"The rates have been revised with a view to mobilise funds from deposits in the beginning of the financial year. We will review our rates by June 30, after which they might be revised again," the BOI official had said.
There would be a case for further upward revision of fixed deposit rates in case the inflation, as projected by many analysts, goes up to 10%.
Moreover, the banks would have to raise fixed deposit rates to retain the deposit base, says brokerage firm Edelweiss Capital in its recent analysis on impact of repo rate hike on the banking sector.
The study further pointed out that following recent hike in repo rate, bottomline of those banks which are dependent on wholesale money market for funds would come under pressure.
New Delhi: There is some good news for retired persons and those dependent on interest income as banks have started increasing their fixed deposit rates following the decision of the RBI to hike the short term lending rate by 0.25%.
Oriental Bank of Commerce has revised its fixed deposit rates for various maturities and raised the rates for its special deposit scheme Asha Kiran (FDs for 400 days) to 9.75% for senior citizens.
This is probably the highest interest rate being offered by the city based public sector lender on 13-month deposit.
Though the senior citizens would get a rate of 9.75%, others will receive 9.25% for 400-day fixed deposit from OBC.
Even the new generation private sector lender Yes Bank increased the deposit rates by 0.5% across all maturities.
After the recent revision of interest rates by Yes Bank, senior citizens would get a maximum of 10% on fixed deposits with a maturity of one year to 18 months. The others would receive a return of 9.5%.
Country's largest public sector lender, State Bank of India, also revised fixed deposit rates upward by up to 0.5% for selected tenures effective June 1.
SBI increased fixed deposits rate for 5-10 years by 0.5% to 9% while 3-5 years tenure was hiked by 0.35%. Senior citizens will get 0.5% more.
Another Mumbai-based lender Bank of India also increased deposit rates up to 0.5% for various maturities.
For deposits having a maturity of one year to less than two years, the revised rate stands at 9.15%, against the earlier rate of 8.50%, while for deposits ranging from two to three years, the new rate is 9.25% as against earlier rate of 8.75%.
Similarly, fixed deposits of Bank of India having a maturity of three to five years will earn 9.50% interest, against the earlier 8.75%.
"The rates have been revised with a view to mobilise funds from deposits in the beginning of the financial year. We will review our rates by June 30, after which they might be revised again," the BOI official had said.
There would be a case for further upward revision of fixed deposit rates in case the inflation, as projected by many analysts, goes up to 10%.
Moreover, the banks would have to raise fixed deposit rates to retain the deposit base, says brokerage firm Edelweiss Capital in its recent analysis on impact of repo rate hike on the banking sector.
The study further pointed out that following recent hike in repo rate, bottomline of those banks which are dependent on wholesale money market for funds would come under pressure.

Why the market is tumbling down???

Guys, finally I m posting my personal views on this issue. Now go though the reasons and see if they satisfy you.

1. Uncertain Governments of India and USA. USA would be going for elections in a couple of months. That’s why many of the IT and export based companies are doubtful about the renewal of their license. McCain and Obama are two different ends of the pole. Thus companies are waiting for the elections to be over. In India, until the Nuclear deal issue is solved, a lot of uncertainty is likely to prevail. Moreover until the result of Lok Sabha poll is out, market will remain gloomy.
2. Rising Crude Oil Prices. We all know that the price of crude oil is not decided on the demand and supply factor. And I firmly believe if in future there is going to be a nuclear war, it would be for Oil. There is no denying the fact that Crude will touch $ 200/barrel and will keep haunting the global indices.
3. Rising Inflation. Inflation is a global phenomenon now. Even though the method of calculating headline inflation varies from country to country, we all are witnessing it. This time inflation has hit hard. The raw material prices have gone high. Be it any sector, they are under tremendous pressure, even Nano is feeling the heat. Taming inflation will require improving supply-side economics.
4. Sub-prime Mortgage. Each one of us know that bourses are the slaves of big players like Mutual Fund, Brokerage Firms and HNIs. The Sub-prime mortgage has hit all MNC banks and big players in a big manner. Trillion dollars have been lost. The big players like CITY, Hedge Funds etc are in tremendous pressure.
5. Weakening Dollar. Dollar has weakened against majority of currencies in the world. As a result currencies like Rupee, Yen have appreciated creating the problem.
6. Election Year. Last but not the least, since this is an election year, government lacked in making policies which are in favor of corporate. May it be ECB, Monetary policy, Exemption in IT, FDI et al. So, the result is evident.
7. Business Cycle. Like every business, markets also follow a cycle….. this is for sure the recessionary phase….. After every night there is a fresh morning…. So guys donn loose your heart…